Let me stick my neck out and make some predictions about how the political scene in the country is likely to unfold. My guess is that it will be something along the following lines-
- By end Dec/ Mid Jan. things will settle down and the demonetisation move will be hailed as a masterstroke.
- Mr.Modi and Co. will become even more convinced of their invincibility and the dependence of BJP on Mr.Modi will increase further.
- The support for brand Modi and demonetisation may somewhat help BJP in its electoral performance in the forthcoming Assembly polls but will fall significantly short of its expectations.
- This trend will continue leading to internal rumblings within BJP. However, Modi &Co will not be directly challenged.
- Just as Congress men never hold Sonia/Rahul accountable for below par performance, similarly Modi will be shielded lest it erodes the value of brand Modi.
- Modi& Co will hear only what they wish to hear and will gradually get totally disconnected from the ground reality.
- Brand Modi will gradually start losing its sheen which will put BJP into a quandary. It will neither be able to dump Modi nor be able to carry on with him.
- In short, this could be BJP’s first significant step on the path of self-destruction.
Needless to say, I could be completely wrong and the events may take a very different course. The main point that I wish to make through this scenario is that assumption of invincibility is a time tested recipe for self-destruction. Yet ,the belief in one’s invincibility is so heady that very few of us can resist it. This is particularly so, when the entire collectivity ( be it a family, an organisation or a country) colludes in thrusting invincibility on some one.
This process is by no means confined to the realm of politics. In virtually all spheres of life, one finds people being made symbols of invincibility. This could be a charismatic leader or a maverick individual performer. The worst consequence of this process is that the individual is shielded from all potentially bad news and hence gets completely cut-off from the ground reality. In effect, the individual starts living in a “make-belief” and even when confronted with “reality” finds it too bizarre to be true. The person does not even have to be a megalomaniac for this to happen. The collective process which is unleashed has a momentum of its own and knowingly or unknowingly, with good or bad intentions, almost everyone gets engulfed by it.
I sometimes wonder as to what lies beneath this process? Is it a projection of our own need for invincibility on to a “hero” OR is it our unconscious resentment and hatred of a hero which gets expressed in a seemingly harmless way but none the less ensure in killing the “hero”. What do you think?